

(Posted on 06/03/20)
The coronavirus Covid-19 presents the global economy with its greatest danger since the financial crisis, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.
Covid-19 is spreading from China to other regions causing human suffering and economic disruption. It is raising health concerns and the risk of wider restrictions on the movement of people, goods and services, falls in business and consumer confidence and slowing production.
The Interim Outlook presents both a best-case scenario in which the extent of the coronavirus is broadly contained and a “domino” prospect of contagion that is more widespread.
In both cases, the OECD calls on governments to act immediately to limit the spread of the coronavirus, protect people and businesses from its effects and shore up demand in the economy.
Even in the best-case scenario of limited outbreaks in countries outside China, a sharp slowdown in world growth is expected in the first half of 2020 as supply chains and commodities are hit, tourism drops and confidence falters. Global economic growth is seen falling to 2.4% for the whole year, compared to an already weak 2.9 % in 2019. It is then expected to rise to a modest 3.3% in 2021.
Growth prospects for China have been revised down sharply to below 5% this year after 6.1% in 2019.
But broader contagion across the wider Asia-Pacific region and advanced economies – as has happened in China - could cut global growth to as low as 1.5% this year, halving the OECD’s previous 2020 projection from last November. Containment measures and loss of confidence would hit production and spending and drive some countries into recession, including Japan and the euro area.
Presenting the Interim Outlook in Paris today, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “The virus risks giving a further blow to a global economy that was already weakened by trade and political tensions. Governments need to act immediately to contain the epidemic, support the health care system, protect people, shore up demand and provide a financial lifeline to households and businesses that are most affected.”
The Outlook says that flexible working should be used to preserve jobs. Governments should implement temporary tax and budgetary measures to cushion the impact in sectors most affected by the downturn such as travel and tourism, and the automobile and electronic industries.
In the most affected countries, adequate liquidity needs to be provided to allow banks to help companies with cash-flow problems while containment measures are in force, it adds.
If the epidemic spreads widely, the G20 economies should lead an internationally co-ordinated framework for health care support, combined with co-ordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus to rebuild confidence, the Outlook adds.
Rio Tinto has announced a 6% production year-on-year uplift, thereby delivering on strategy through... Read more
The Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-SURE) and Trafigura, a global leader in the commodities industry... Read more
BHP have released their Operational Review for the year ended 30 June 2025.BHP Chief Executive Officer... Read more
A strategic collaboration between Icon Gulf Trading DMCC (part of the Dynamic Group) and GeoServe Energy... Read more
SSAB and Metal Solutions have entered a long-term partnership for the supply of decarbonized steel with... Read more
The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) in the USA has applauded Congress for including a slate... Read more
Fertilizers Europe’s have released their reaction to the European Commission announcement on the... Read more
Bunge Global SA has confirmed that it has completed the previously announced sale of its North America... Read more
Following the successful debt raising at the end of April 2025, SSAB has secured an additional EUR 430... Read more
Despite China’s dominant position in securing commodities across Africa, there are still many... Read more