Coaltrans Global 2021Port of StocktonTOC EventsBühler GmbHViganCimbria
  • Bühler GmbH
  • Cleveland Cascades Ltd
  • Port of Vancouver USA
  • Vigan
  • Port of Stockton
  • Cimbria

Economists expect US soy export growth

(Posted on 28/08/20)

One might question how COVID-19 and U.S. Soy exports are related. For many, this might be a far stretch, but not for Tanner Ehmke, an economist with CoBank Knowledge Exchange.

While coronavirus continues to grow around the world, especially in the United States, some areas of the world appear to have gotten it contained.

While those economic forecasts look much brighter, unfortunately, we cannot say that for the United States, Ehmke said during his presentation that was part of the opening session of the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange and Specialty Grains Conference.

“This has a huge impact on the outlook for the economic recovery for the United States,” Ehmke said. “This means many areas will remain closed, or are reclosing … severely clouds the outlook.”

Going forward, Ehmke said this means we can expect a struggling U.S. economy until a vaccine is developed and deployed across the masses.

As such, the U.S. Federal Reserve has injected an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the world economy, he explained, noting that the Fed has led the world in its quantitative easing.

“All of this added together (gloomy economic outlook, increase in liquidity, political gridlock, 2020 election) — all this uncertainty has created a depressing outlook for the U.S. dollar,” he said. “Some economists even have a 30% drop in the value of the U.S. dollar.

“Therefore, it stands to reason if we have a weakening of the U.S. dollar, it means we could have a more bullish outlook on soybean exports and soybean prices.”

Outside of the United States, Ehmke pointed to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has been recovering and is a positive signal of global economic expansion. Ehmke believes the world economy outside of the U.S. has seen the worst of COVID.

He said the Brazilian Real has been strengthening; whereas, in Argentina, the Peso has been weakening along with Paraguay’s Guarani.

“The fact that the Brazilian Real is strengthening while the U.S. dollar is weakening, this is an advantage to U.S. exports and a headwind to Brazilian exports going forward,” Ehmke said.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent report, it expects record high soybean production around the world and unprecedented availability.

Ehmke said global soybean trade is also seen as moving to a new record, much of which is due to the United States.

USDA expects U.S. Soy exports to rebound 29% year over year, while Brazilian exports are expected to be down 10% year over year.

China has increased imports from the United States just over last year, but still well down, Ehmke added, noting that a lot of soybean sales remain on the books for China as we close out the marketing year.

“We anticipate that China will continue to buy more soybeans from the United States as we move into the new crop and shipping season,” he said.

During the presentation, Ehmke presented with Will Sawyer, who spoke on the animal protein outlook and its impact on soybean demand. Stay tuned for Part II.

The U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange and Specialty Grains Conference is hosted by the U.S. Soybean Export Council in partnership with the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance.

Latest News

$8.4bn tax contribution by Rio Tinto

(Posted on 11/04/21)

Rio Tinto has released its 2020 Taxes paid. The company’s economic contribution report, which... Read more


En+ director joins Aluminium Stewardship Initiative board

(Posted on 06/04/21)

En+ Group, the world’s leading producer of low-carbon aluminium and independent hydropower, has... Read more


Project to monitor global fertilizer usage

(Posted on 01/04/21)

The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and agri benchmark Cash Crop have announced the start... Read more


Rusal invests over $1bn on environment in a decade

(Posted on 01/04/21)

Rusal, a leading global aluminium producer, invested over USD1bn in environmental projects between 2011... Read more


World crude steel production rises

(Posted on 28/03/21)

World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel... Read more


Rio Tinto selects solar technology for Boron mine

(Posted on 28/03/21)

International mining and metals company Rio Tinto and renewable energy technology company Heliogen has... Read more


NGFA outlines priorities for transportation bill

(Posted on 22/03/21)

The USA’s National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) has urged lawmakers to prioritise improvements... Read more


British Steel to invest £100m this year

(Posted on 17/03/21)

British Steel has announced that it is investing £100m this year to support the next stage of... Read more


Rusal announces 2020 results

(Posted on 17/03/21)

Rusal, a leading global aluminium producer, has announced its results for the year ended 31 December... Read more


Power supply launch prepares smelter for commissioning

(Posted on 11/03/21)

En+ Group, the world’s largest producer of low carbon aluminium and independent hydropower, has... Read more


Port of South LouisianaSailors SocietyCleveland Cascades LtdTBA GroupPort of Vancouver USAThe Wolfson Centre for Bulk Solids Handling Technology
  • Telestack
  • The Wolfson Centre for Bulk Solids Handling Technology
  • Sailors Society

Subscribe to our newsletter

Keep up to date with the latest global news in bulk cargo handling and shipping