DNV GL: Fuel choice the essential decision
(Posted on 27/09/20)
DNV GL – Maritime, the world’s leading classification society, has released the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050. The purpose of Maritime Forecast to 2050 is to enhance the ability of shipping stakeholders, especially shipowners, to navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties in the industry, and set shipping on a pathway to decarbonization. It is based on a library of 30 scenarios which project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Sixteen different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems are modelled in the report.
“The grand challenge of our time is finding a pathway towards decarbonization,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “Reducing GHG emissions is rapidly becoming the defining decision-making factor for the future of the shipping industry. The pressure to act decisively is mounting. Perfect is the enemy of good, and so we mustn’t wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Using a wide range of scenarios involving different fuel types and technologies, and varying degrees of regulatory pressure, our new report helps to map a way forward, offering shipowners clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.”
The Maritime Forecast identifies the choice of fuel as the essential factor in decarbonizing shipping. The industry is at the beginning of a transition phase, with many potential options emerging alongside conventional fuels. This increasingly diverse fuel environment means that engine and fuel choice now represent potential risks that could lead to a stranded asset. Factoring in the impacts of availability, prices and policy, on different fuels, makes the choice even more complex.
To capture this complexity and help make this picture clearer the Maritime Forecast offers a wide range of scenarios, outlining the potential risks of a particular fuel choice. To make the ramifications concrete, alongside the pathways, the Maritime Forecast includes detailed analysis of a Panamax bulk carrier newbuilding. By stress testing technology decisions under the various pathways and scenarios, the Forecast presents potential performance and the carbon robustness of the various design choices.
The 30 scenarios result in widely different outcomes for the fuel mix in the fleet. In the scenarios with no decarbonization ambitions, very low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and LNG dominate. While under the decarbonization pathways, in 2050 a variety of carbon-neutral fuels holds between 60% and 100% market share.
Under the decarbonization scenarios it is hard to identify clear winners among the many different fuel options. Fossil LNG gains a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. Bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG and e-LNG emerge as drop-in fuels for existing ships. By 2050, E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently end up with a strong share of the market and are the most promising carbon-neutral fuels in the long run.
Latest News
Better safeguarding measures needed to support cadets at sea
(Posted on 07/05/25)Cadets are increasingly struggling to complete their cadetships due to a shortage of available placements... Read more
Algoma focuses on reliable service and fleet improvements
(Posted on 07/05/25)Algoma Central Corporation has reported its results for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Algoma... Read more
ClassNK releases ‘Prime Shipmanagement Guidelines’
(Posted on 01/05/25)ClassNK has released ‘Prime Shipmanagement Guidelines’ which aim to achieve sustainable... Read more
MCTC ensures quality remains at top of the table amid global tensions
(Posted on 30/04/25)In the face of unpredictable provisioning costs, port disruptions, and longer lead times MCTC has reinforced... Read more
NORDEN raises full-year guidance for 2025
(Posted on 28/04/25)On the back of the increased gains from sales of vessels and good operational performance, NORDEN, a... Read more
INTERCARGO welcomes ILO recognition of seafarers as key workers
(Posted on 28/04/25)The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (INTERCARGO) has welcomed the recent decision... Read more
MMS advises why seafarers must remain vigilant about malaria
(Posted on 25/04/25)Despite its lack of publicity, malaria remains an ongoing epidemic and a perilous threat to seafarers... Read more
Veson: Bulker S&P activity falls sharply in Q1 2025
(Posted on 22/04/25)Due to market uncertainty, overall sale and purchase levels for Bulkers have fallen year on year, with... Read more
Britannia Group announces CEO succession plan
(Posted on 22/04/25)The Britannia Group, a leading P&I insurer, has announced that its Chief Executive, Andrew Cutler... Read more
INTERCARGO responds to IMO's decision on GHG reduction measures
(Posted on 15/04/25)At last week's landmark MEPC 83 meeting, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Member States... Read more
