CoBank outlines Swine Fever implications
(Posted on 21/06/19)
A May 2019 report from CoBank forecasts feed demand from China and Southeast Asia will drop significantly due to African Swine Fever, trimming U.S. feed and grain exports.
The report, “African Swine Fever Implications for U.S. Ag,” notes that it is yet unknown how much and for how long China’s pork industry will contract, but “it’s certain there will be significant implications for the U.S. animal protein and feed sectors.”
“ASF demand destruction will be especially painful for elevators, crushers, and feed mills that are focused on Chinese markets,” wrote report authors Will Sawyer, CoBank lead economist for animal protein, and Will Secor, CoBank economist for grain and farm supply. “Exports may not decline as severely for those companies that can pivot to the European Union and other markets outside China.”
Citing April figures from China’s Ministry of Agriculture, the report says China’s hog breeding herd is down 22 percent and the overall hog herd is down 21 percent compared to last year. Projections call for China to lose roughly one-third of its hog production over the next 12 to 18 months. If China’s hog herd declines as projected, the report predicts soybean meal consumption to decline by roughly 9 million metric tons (MMT) and corn consumption to drop by about 28 MMT.
Mitigating some of the negative impacts on feed demand are projections that Chinese consumers will be buying more imported pork and more poultry, beef and fish, CoBank said. In addition, demand for U.S. animal protein will grow, resulting in an increase in domestic feed demand. Elevators, crush facilities and feed mills positioned to fill domestic demand likely will benefit from this increase, the authors noted.
Glencore’s Chief Executive Officer, Ivan Glasenberg, commented: “Our performance in 2019... Read more
From February 3rd to 7th, the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) welcomed 170 leaders from the... Read more
Members of the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) arrived in Tampa, Fla., for the organization’s winter... Read more
In 2019, Bühler delivered good performance at Group level, increasing the EBIT margin to 7.6% (... Read more
The World Coal Association (WCA) have been invited to visit the Tomakomai CCS Demonstration Centre in... Read more
RUSAL, one of the world’s major producers of aluminium, has appointed Ayumi Murakami as Representative... Read more
Rusal, one of the world’s largest aluminium producers, has invested approximately 600 million... Read more
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the largest and oldest independent iron ore mining company in the United States... Read more
SSY Futures Ltd is pleased to announce that it has arranged the first trade in Mid-Western Aluminium... Read more
ArcelorMittal has been recognised by CDP for its leadership on corporate transparency and action on... Read more