2021 Coal demand rebound set to be short-lived
(Posted on 22/12/20)
A global economic recovery in 2021 is expected to drive a short-lived rebound in coal demand following the major drop this year triggered by the Covid-19 crisis, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
However, there is little sign that the world’s coal consumption is set to decline substantially in the coming years, with rising demand in some Asian economies offsetting declines elsewhere. As coal is by far the single largest source of global energy-related carbon emissions, the trends outlined in the report pose a major challenge to efforts to put those emissions on a path compatible with reaching climate and sustainable energy goals.
The past two years have seen historic falls in global coal demand, led by unprecedented drops in the United States and Europe, says Coal 2020, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual market report on the sector. A 1.8% decline in coal demand in 2019 resulted mainly from weak growth in electricity demand and low natural gas prices. Latest estimates from the IEA suggest coal demand will have plunged by a further 5% in 2020 on the economic fallout from Covid-19.
“The Covid-19 crisis has completely reshaped global coal markets. Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security. “The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China – the world’s largest coal consumer – in the second half of the year.”
Based on the assumption of a recovery in the world economy, the IEA report forecasts a 2.6% rise in global coal demand in 2021, driven by higher electricity demand and industrial output. China, India and Southeast Asian economies account for most of the growth, although the United States and Europe may also both see their first increases in coal consumption in nearly a decade. However, global coal demand in 2021 is still forecast to remain below 2019 levels and could be even lower if the report’s assumptions for the economic recovery, electricity demand or natural gas prices are not met.
The rebound in coal demand in 2021 is set to be short-lived, with coal use forecast to flatten out by 2025 at around 7.4 billion tonnes. This would make 2013, when global coal demand reached 8 billion tonnes, coal’s all-time peak. But while coal’s share in both the electricity mix and the overall energy mix are in steady decline, coal use in absolute terms is not set for a rapid decline in the immediate future.
“Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025. And by that time, natural gas will likely have taken over coal as the second largest source of primary energy after oil,” said Mr Sadamori. “But with coal demand still expected to remain steady or to grow in key Asian economies, there is no sign that coal is going to fade away quickly.”
The future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65% of global coal demand. With Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia included, that share rises to 75%. China, which currently accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption, will be especially influential. By 2025, the European Union and United States will account for less than 10% of global coal demand, down from 37% in 2000. This will make the impacts of any further changes in demand in these markets very limited.
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025.
Latest News
NGFA applauds Senate confirmation of Lindberg as USDA trade undersecretary
(Posted on 04/08/25)The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) has commended the U.S. Senate for confirming Luke... Read more
Cargill to acquire Mig-Plus, expanding animal nutrition business in Brazil
(Posted on 04/08/25)Cargill, one of the world’s leading food providers, continues to advance its growth strategy in... Read more
Resilient financial results as Rio Tinto grows and diversifies
(Posted on 30/07/25)Rio Tinto has announced a 6% production year-on-year uplift, thereby delivering on strategy through... Read more
K-SURE and Trafigura $200m financing agreement to support Korean shipping
(Posted on 30/07/25)The Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-SURE) and Trafigura, a global leader in the commodities industry... Read more
BHP record copper and iron ore production drives strong 2025 performance
(Posted on 21/07/25)BHP have released their Operational Review for the year ended 30 June 2025.BHP Chief Executive Officer... Read more
Dynamic Mining shipping arm and GeoServe’s one-year milestone
(Posted on 15/07/25)A strategic collaboration between Icon Gulf Trading DMCC (part of the Dynamic Group) and GeoServe Energy... Read more
SSAB and Metal Solutions start partnership in fossil-free steel
(Posted on 15/07/25)SSAB and Metal Solutions have entered a long-term partnership for the supply of decarbonized steel with... Read more
NGFA thanks lawmakers for including industry priorities in ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
(Posted on 08/07/25)The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) in the USA has applauded Congress for including a slate... Read more
Fertilizers Europe: Commission announcement on CBAM falls short
(Posted on 08/07/25)Fertilizers Europe’s have released their reaction to the European Commission announcement on the... Read more
Bunge completes sale of its North America corn milling business
(Posted on 02/07/25)Bunge Global SA has confirmed that it has completed the previously announced sale of its North America... Read more
