Long-term outlook strong despite decline in US Aluminium demand

(Posted on 12/01/24)

The Aluminum Association in the USA has released preliminary estimates showing demand for the aluminium industry in the USA and Canada declined 4.4% through the first three quarters of 2023.

The Aluminum Association represents aluminium production and jobs in the United States, ranging from primary production to value added products to recycling, as well as suppliers to the industry. The association is the industry’s leading voice, representing companies that make 70% of the aluminium and aluminium products shipped in North America.

“Despite some softness in the market following near record shipments in 2022, aluminium demand remains near the 10-year average during a time of increased investment for the U.S. industry,” said Charles Johnson, president & CEO of the Aluminum Association. “With nearly $6 billion committed to expand domestic aluminium operations since 2021 alone, the long-term outlook for aluminium remains strong.”

Among key takeaways from the report: Aluminum demand in the United States and Canada (shipments by domestic producers plus imports) totalled an estimated 19,993 million pounds through Q3 2023, compared to the Q3 2022 total of 20,908 million pounds.

Electrical wire & cable saw 14.7% year-over-year demand growth through the third quarter as the electrical infrastructure market remains strong.

In total, semi-fabricated – or “mill” – product demand was off 9.5% year-over-year through Q3.

Aluminium exports (excluding scrap) to foreign countries increased 23.1% in the third quarter.

At 105.8, the Association’s Index of Net New Orders of Aluminium Mill Products (baseline index of 100) has shown a decline of 5.1% year-to-date (through November).

Imported aluminium and aluminium products into the North America (US and Canada) have fallen over 25% through Q3 2023.

In the last decade, Aluminum Association member companies have announced more than $9 billion in investments for domestic manufacturing operations ($6 billion since 2021) – including new, U.S.-based greenfield facilities for the first time since the 1980s. This increased investment is thanks to demand for sustainable packaging, safe and efficient vehicles, greener buildings and vital infrastructure.