CN operations recover as outlook updated following labour dispute

(Posted on 19/09/24)

CN has announced that its operations have recovered following several months of labour uncertainty as well as a complete shutdown of its Canadian network, and that it is adjusting its 2024 guidance and long-term financial outlook.

With its nearly 20,000-mile rail network and related transportation services, CN connects Canada’s Eastern and Western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico.

CN remains focused on the disciplined execution of its scheduled operating plan, growing volumes more than the economy as its company specific growth opportunities come online, pricing above rail inflation, and improving efficiency.

The Company’s scheduled operating plan, and the steps taken to affect a safe and orderly shutdown, have enabled a swift network recovery following the labour stoppage. Car velocity, train speed and dwell have all recovered, and the Company is now essentially current with demand.

Due to the impact of CN’s labour uncertainty and work stoppage, the impact of the wildfires in Alberta, weaker than expected demand in forest products and metals, as well as the delayed recovery of overseas intermodal due to on-going port labour uncertainty, CN is revising its 2024 full year financial guidance. The quarter-to-date additional impact of labour uncertainty and the work stoppage, as well as the wildfires in Alberta, is estimated at around $0.20 of EPS.

CN now expects to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth in the low single-digit range, compared to its July 23, 2024, expectation of mid to high single-digit growth. The Company continues to expect to invest approximately C$3.5 billion in its capital program, net of amounts reimbursed by customers. As a result of the reduction to earnings, CN now expects adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) to be in the 13%-15% range, compared to its July 23, 2024, expectation of approximately 15%.

In light of updated expectations for 2024, and a weaker than expected economic environment, CN is replacing all its current financial outlook for the 2024-2026 period with the following: CN is now targeting compounded annual adjusted diluted EPS growth in the high single digit range.